 Grid-connected PV power plants, such as this one near Austin, Texas, are one type of non-fossil-fuel electricity generation. |
November 19, 1998
In order to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide content at less than twice pre-industrial levels by the year 2050 there needs to be a tenfold increase in carbon-emission-free power generation over the next 50 years, according to university researchers. Reducing energy consumption will also help to delay an expected oil crisis.
The team of researchers, led by New York University physicist Matin I. Hoffert, concluded that it will be necessary to boost carbon-emission-free power generation from 1.5 terawatts today to 15 terawatts in 2050.
"Stabilizing CO2 at twice pre-industrial levels without untenable economic disruptions implies a massive shift to carbon-free power, particularly in developing nations. There are no energy systems technologically ready at present to produce the required amount of carbon-free power", said Hoffert.
The change the researchers are calling for is a 150 percent increase in today's total energy production, implying a major transition in the global energy system.
Today, 85 percent of the world's 11 terawatts comes from fossil fuels and 15 percent comes from non-fossil fuels. Hoffert's team found that non-fossil-fuel generation must account for at least 50 percent of the 30 terawatt total in 2050.
While Hoffert says that the energy systems needed to produce that amount of power are not currently technologically ready, "there are renewable, fission and fusion concepts incorporating innovative technological ideas at early research and development stages that could, in principle, provide needed carbon-free power".
However, the policy incentives for such technological ideas are not in place and without them it could take more than 50 years to penetrate to their market potential, Hoffert said.
"The bottom line is that we are going to need an international effort pursued with the same urgency as the Manhattan Project or the Apollo space program. The roles of governments and market entrepreneurs in the eventual deployment of such technologies need to be considered more comprehensively than we have been able to do here. It is our hope that the potential adverse effects of humanity on Earth's climate will stimulate new industries in the 21st century, as did the Second World War and the Cold War in this century", he said.
The research was published in the Oct. 29, 1999 issue of the journal Nature.
NOTE: Energy Efficiency and the use of Non-Fossil Energy sources can help to minimize production of Pollution and Greenhouse Gasses.