It's the Oil

Never mind the pundits, the root cause remains the same.

In the orgy of examination of who and what is to blame for the events of September 11, we must have heard every conceivable explanation. The American right, as exemplified by President Bush, Fox News and the opinion page of the The Wall Street Journal, blames envy of American values and success. The extreme right blames secular humanism, gay rights and the other bogeymen they love to flog. The center faults lax airport security and a general lack of preparedness, while the left, all but ignored by the corporate media, blames American imperialism and in some cases our unconditional support for Israel.

Yet for all the noise generated by partisans and centrists alike, no one is willing to accept the blatantly obvious, the real underlying factor behind America’s involvement in the Byzantine labyrinth of Middle East politics. What could possibly motivate the propping up of repressive non-democracies like the Saudi and Kuwaiti royal families, or murderous regimes like that of Reza Pahlavi, Shah of Iran? Or pouring billions into the coffers of Saddam Hussein in the ’80s, or even creating the monster that is possibly the mastermind of these attacks, Osama Bin Laden, beneficiary of CIA lucre and training?

It’s the Oil, Stupid.

Once again, America’s twin addictions, that of its people to cheap gasoline and its corporations to billions of petro-dollars, has led us right into the proverbial pit. Having learned very little or forgotten a lot in the wake of the oil embargoes of the 1970s, America is as strung out on the fossil-fuel jones as any Bonnie Brae Street junkie is on Mexican tar heroin. Even though American dependency on oil from the Middle East has fallen to about 17 percent of national consumption, Saudi Arabia remains the cornerstone, producing 50 percent of the whole world’s supply. So in order to keep this economic balm flowing, to keep the status quo static and the balance sheets of the major oil companies brimming, we’ve installed our military as a kind of mega police force in the region. Our official reason for being there is to ensure “stability,” one of the great buzzwords in the history of business, but this is nothing more than spin — the military is in the Middle East to guarantee that whatever comes out of the ground is exploitable and controlled by American multinationals.

And it is the simple fact of the presence of American soldiers on the holy soil of Islam that has so enraged our new nemesis, Bin Laden.

Speaking to British journalist Robert Fisk in 1996 Afghanistan, Bin Laden made clear his agenda. “When the American troops entered Saudia Arabia [after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait], the land of the two holy places [Mecca and Medina], there was strong protest from the ulema [religious authorities] and from students of the Shariah law all over the country against the interference of American troops,” Bin Laden told Fisk, who published the comments in The Nation in 1998. The Saudi leaders made a “big mistake,” Bin Laden said, when they responded by suppressing the protests and cementing ties to the U.S. “After it had insulted and jailed the ulema . . . the Saudi regime lost its legitimacy,” Bin Laden said. And so began his deadly fatwa against the United States.

Oil has been the prime mover behind any and every political decision in that region since the First World War, when trucks, tanks and planes replaced horses and camels. Once the internal-combustion engine became the technological centerpiece of the century, keeping it going by any means necessary became a most profitable business venture. And despite the myth that has been rammed down America’s psyche for eons, American business loathes competition and aims for monopoly. Sure, they’ll partner with the Saudi royal family (because the government that they dominate owns all of its oil), but in exchange, anyone in the region who actually believes in the rights of the people of that country to share in the wealth of their homeland is shut out. And forcefully, with the aid of the American military and CIA, as we saw in Iran and during the Gulf War.

This dusty, empty part of the world was basically nothing more than a Bedouin crossroads for 1,300 years, between the end of the Crusades and the early 1900s. During the period when America endured revolution and a civil war, and Europe tore itself apart, the Middle East was downright peaceful. Tell me why the United States and Great Britain reflexively back the state of Israel in its battles with its neighbors. Were it not sitting strategically close to vast pools of viscous crude, no one would give a rat’s ass about either side.

It’s the meddling in the internal affairs of the indigenous people of the region to ensure that said oil stays in the hands of the privileged few that has led to an enraged underground movement of terrorists in these lands. And oil is all we’re there for — what else of value comes from that part of the world, what strategic value does it have otherwise?

That may seem as obvious as the nose on our collective face, but it’s something almost no one wants to acknowledge. Especially given the ties between the media and the oil companies: ABC is tied to Texaco, NBC to British Petroleum, Time Warner to Mobil Oil, as revealed in the marvelous media-watchdog flier Censored Alert in the summer of 2000. And now the oil industry is entrenched as America’s No. 1 player with Bush and Cheney, two oil men (one failed, one successful) in command.

Eliminate the oil, and the American presence ends in the area; the resentment aimed at our land and our people also ends. Out of sight, out of mind, remember? Never mind the bollocks about how the Arabs envy our wealth: I don’t see them terrorizing Monaco or flying jets into the side of the Big Ben. The simple fact is, our armies aggravate them as colonial enforcers. Much in the same way that our forefathers loathed Hessians in the American Revolution.

If anything, the leaders of the Middle East are terrified of our abandonment. Like savvy survivors, they play both sides at the same time. Just as an American corporation will donate money to Republicans and Democrats both, so these strongmen pay lip service to America while nodding, winking and (in the case of Yemen and allegedly some Saudi businessmen) donating money to terrorist cells on the side, just to be safe.

It’s our own greed and need for control that has led us into this petroleum quagmire. Ross Perot, hardly the voice of progressive politics, made the canny observation in the first presidential debate of 1992 that the Gulf War was fought solely for control of oil and nothing more. He made the further point that American blood wasn’t worth shedding over a product that Saddam would have been glad to sell us himself.

Note:  Progressively greater shortages of oil due to natural limits are expected to begin within prior to 2010. Americans can make a smoother transition to the post-petroleum age if we start now to aggressively do so before oil supplies become scarce and expensive.  Large quantities of fossil fuels will be required to manufacture the large quantities of renewable energy systems needed to replace fossil fuels.

Reducing Our Dangerous Dependence on Middle East Oil

The calamity that hit our country on Sept. 11 has its roots in our dependence on the Middle East’s oil. The U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia sows hatred in a radicalized group of the population who believe that the presence of foreign troops desecrates the holy places of Islam. The Persian Gulf War and a threat from Iraq force us to stay, because we and most of the rest of the world depend on oil from the gulf states.

The oil resources of the world are, indeed, mostly in the Middle East. The U.S. Geological Survey has concluded that 80 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves are in 30 reservoirs. Of these, 11 account for 70 percent of those reserves and are in the Middle East.

All these reservoirs were discovered before 1970 and, therefore, much of the oil in them has been pumped out. Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, the most recent of the few giant fields in the United States, reached its production peak in 1987 and is in a late stage of decline, with production decreasing 10 percent yearly.

But world oil consumption is increasing each year, and petroleum geologists warn that seven years from now, half of the oil put in place by geological processes over millions of years will be gone. Production of oil in various regions of the world follows roughly a bell-shaped curve.

This is most easily demonstrated for the United States, where the peak production took place in 1970. Every year, U.S. oil production diminishes. For the entire world, the decline will begin before the end of this decade. One can become convinced of this by relating the production history to the rate at which oil is found. The world peak in discovery took place in 1964.

One must find oil before one can produce it, and the rate at which we are finding oil in the world has ground to a halt. We are finding just one barrel for every four we are using.

If the looming scarcity of oil is not bad enough, North America is also entering an era of tight natural-gas markets. The wells in the Gulf of Mexico are being depleted at astounding rates. The frenzied drilling barely keeps up with demand. We import 13 percent of our natural gas from Canada, but studies show that the most prolific Western Canada Sedimentary Basin in Alberta will enter an era of decline in two years.

Japan and Korea import liquefied natural gas in great quantities, but in the United States, there are only two ports capable of handling this cargo, though two more are to be ready before the end of the year. Liquefied natural gas accounts for only 3 percent of our total use. A world natural-gas-production peak is likely to follow the peak in oil production by 20 years, when the large natural-gas fields of Russia start showing their age.

What do we do? Clearly, the answer is better use of oil and natural gas and reduction in its consumption. Every barrel saved is for our children and grandchildren to use. And saving oil for future generations is the most persuasive argument against drilling now in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve. The transportation sector in the United States is 94 percent dependent on oil and, unlike for road travel, no alternative exists for aviation.
Transport of goods by trains wins hands down over air cargo and long-haul trucking in energy efficiency. More fuel- efficient diesel cars and new hybrid designs are already on the market. Public transportation needs to be improved and cities rebuilt so that people can live close to their places of work. Now is the time to dust off the plans for light rail in Columbus and begin to act on them. Bicycle paths and sidewalks should be built to give people a choice, which by and large is lacking.

Policies that favor public transportation also will reverse the urban sprawl that plagues the nation. During the first oil shock, Victorian Village in Columbus was revitalized. There is scope to do much in other areas of the city and Mayor Michael B. Coleman already early this year expressed his desire to make this his policy. In order to save money on heating bills, we are obliged one day to live in smaller, more energy-efficient houses.

In short, the trends of past decades will need to be reversed. The farmland close to our cities can be saved to remain in the hands of small farmers. As we return to a more sane form of living, we, in increasing numbers, will wish to buy healthful food from the farmers; markets and supermarkets that favor local production, thus, would avoid the cost of long-haul transportation. Farming in the United States consumes enormous quantities of petroleum, because it is used not only to power machinery but also in fertilizer. Future generations will pay much more for their food after oil becomes scarce.

Many will not let themselves believe that the peak in oil production is close at hand. They have been told numerous times that world reserves will last about 40 years at the present rate of consumption and that this estimate has held over time. They would do well to remember that in the 1970s, the world peak rate of discovery was just past and whether this was to be the case for good was unclear. This message on reserves gives a false picture, because consumption will exceed the present rate during the next few years, owing to the increase in the world and U.S. population.

When depletion sets in, prices will begin to increase and will remain high. This will cause demand to decrease to balance the lower supply. This is inevitable. The tragedy that confronts our country should make us resolute not only in the battle against the terrorists, but also in changing our habits of oil consumption so that our children and grandchildren will inherit a safer and more hopeful world.

NOTE: Seppo Korpela is a professor of mechanical engineering at Ohio State University.

Additional Sources of Information:

• Oil Crisis
• Natural Gas Prices
• Permanent U.S. Military Bases in Iraq?

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